What`s new? An agreement between Turkey and Russia that protects the rebel-held Syrian government of Idlib from a regime offensive is under increasing pressure. Clashes between jihadists and other militants in Idlib and regime forces have intensified. Newly launched Turkish patrols are making progress in implementing the bilateral agreement, but much remains to be done. Second, the Syrian refugee crisis has reached an explosive device along the Turkish border, with one million people escaping regime attacks. Although the recent agreement with Russia has so far put an end to the regime`s attacks, it has not addressed the central problem. Faced with the impossibility of tolerating the status quo, Turkey called on European countries to provide “concrete support” beyond financial aid, with a long list of demands, including military support on the Turkey-Syria border, with reconnaissance aircraft and surveillance drones, and more ships in the eastern Mediterranean. However, the abrupt end of the recent meeting between Mr Erdogan and the leaders of the European Union is a difficult road. Of course, Ankara`s options are extremely limited, as it must force the restraint of extremists and tackle the worsening refugee crisis. While the details of the implementation of the agreement remain unclear, Turkey has stated that moderate opposition groups will remain in the demilitarized zone, but all others (including HRT) and all heavy weapons will be withdrawn. For its part, Turkey has been mainly interested in avoiding a destabilizing conflict on its border. A fight for Idlib would send a new wave of refugees to Turkey, forcing Ankara to push them back, take them to Turkish-controlled areas in northern Aleppo or let them in and increase Turkey`s already huge refugee population. [fn] According to the Turkish government, Turkey hosts more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees.

Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Turkey – Directorate General for Migration Management, “Distribution of Syrian Refugees in the Field of Temporary Protection per Year.” On the eve of the Sochi agreement, the United Nations warned that up to 800,000 people could be displaced by an offensive. “The UN fears that 800,000 people will be displaced in Rebel-held Idlib in Syria,” AFP, 29 August 2018. Even this huge figure was based on a scenario in which the regime launched a geographically limited offensive for parts of the Idlib area.